Emotional Epidemiology of H1N1 Influenza Vaccination: Suspicion has ITS own contagion Coca
Dear friends and readers of this blog. We set ourselves the hard and fast rules in this Blog. This is an exception. The link is not ready. Missing references, but in the meantime this draft would like to post them now for sharing. I wrote in one go and I want you to read what I wrote in one go without useful turns of phrase. Read and return in prossimi giorni: troverete tutte le voci bibliografiche e i link di questo post.
ultimo aggiornamento di questo post: ore 0,15 del 25 Novembre 2009
Salvo Fedele
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Memory On Wedding Program
46a settimana: anteprima della
pandemia light degli esperti italiani? 
Quanto è successo nella terza settimana di novembre (46a settimana) è inverosimile: un autore di un libro di fantascienza non potrebbe far di meglio. Questa invece è l'Italia di cui potrete prendere visione sui giornali di questi giorni Siamo appena alla quarta settimana di sorveglianza, l’ANSA in un lancio di agenzia riprende un convegno della rete Epiwork. (link) We talk about the world situation. The title of the launch: "The worst is over." Immediately after bulletin FluNews writes "the value of current incidence is probably reaching the epidemic peak." (Links and bibliography) All major national newspapers take up the news: "We have reached the peak, the worst is over" (Link) (Link) All based on these simple facts: - ILI in the band ages 0-4 years reached 28.14 cases per thousand, in the age group 5-14 years reached 40.78 per thousand
- ILI in the age group 15-65 years there are virtually moved from previous weeks: 7.65 for 7.29 per thousand against one thousand. is unaware of three or four epidemiological criteria in addition to the basic epidemiological criteria that can correctly interpret the order pandemic: the concomitant increase in all age groups of ILI. (Biblio)
Italy can then pull really a sigh of relief?
Some people with "timeliness" anticipates its editorial of December on a blog (link), sanctioning the official closing of the pandemic in Italy to December 1, 2009. Other
.
backdrop to all this rubbish of the statements that follow the WHO after allegations by the Polish Minister of Health, junk that totally ignores the tragedy of Poland, the birth of "tourism vaccination" of the Poles toward the wealthy neighboring Hungary (where the national vaccine production can be purchased in a pharmacy to 7 euros), the difficulties of this nation bordering Ukraine, el'ormai inevitable birth of a black market for vaccines, with all the consequences that everyone will have difficult to imagine.
In fact, As is well known by all the texts of the basic epidemiology, the pandemic could not end up with an interest of less than 5% of the population, as easily obtainable by using some simple arithmetic function:
- The cases reported by the Ministry are little more than two million, given that it is in fact most of ILI A H1N1 is not even at the highest level found in European countries (30% in UK): in everything and in reality no more than 600 000 cases (i)
- 600 000 cases to a peak, the characteristic curves of Gauss where the average is also the median and fashionable should correspond to about half of the wave pandemic
- 600,000 for two is equal to 1,200,000 - Admitting the existence of curves "Gauss abnormal," to meet the desires of people who all close to 1 December 2009, we can go so far as to declare the end of pandemic on the basis of a single suspected pandemic wave affecting only 4 million people throughout the country? - It does not take long to realize that it can not be over and that a pandemic can not have a protective effect on mortality from seasonal influenza ...
What should we hope?
A pandemic every year to limit the damage of the season?
- In the long run-up the real pandemic wave (described in all texts of epidemiology as a feature of all pandemics), there was already a significant mortality and the Case Fatality Rate can now be estimated at a minimum level of 0.1% (mean 0 , 6% range from 0.1 to 5.1 depending on the country) (bibliography and links)
- ILI in the age group 15-65 years there are virtually moved from previous weeks: 7.65 for 7.29 per thousand against one thousand. is unaware of three or four epidemiological criteria in addition to the basic epidemiological criteria that can correctly interpret the order pandemic: the concomitant increase in all age groups of ILI. (Biblio)
Italy can then pull really a sigh of relief?
Some people with "timeliness" anticipates its editorial of December on a blog (link), sanctioning the official closing of the pandemic in Italy to December 1, 2009. Other
(link) (link) go as more "complex" to declare "it's over now, what would be vaccinated?"(never heard of the possibility of a pandemic wave number> 1?)
.
backdrop to all this rubbish of the statements that follow the WHO after allegations by the Polish Minister of Health, junk that totally ignores the tragedy of Poland, the birth of "tourism vaccination" of the Poles toward the wealthy neighboring Hungary (where the national vaccine production can be purchased in a pharmacy to 7 euros), the difficulties of this nation bordering Ukraine, el'ormai inevitable birth of a black market for vaccines, with all the consequences that everyone will have difficult to imagine.
In fact, As is well known by all the texts of the basic epidemiology, the pandemic could not end up with an interest of less than 5% of the population, as easily obtainable by using some simple arithmetic function:
- The cases reported by the Ministry are little more than two million, given that it is in fact most of ILI A H1N1 is not even at the highest level found in European countries (30% in UK): in everything and in reality no more than 600 000 cases (i)
- 600 000 cases to a peak, the characteristic curves of Gauss where the average is also the median and fashionable should correspond to about half of the wave pandemic
- 600,000 for two is equal to 1,200,000 - Admitting the existence of curves "Gauss abnormal," to meet the desires of people who all close to 1 December 2009, we can go so far as to declare the end of pandemic on the basis of a single suspected pandemic wave affecting only 4 million people throughout the country? - It does not take long to realize that it can not be over and that a pandemic can not have a protective effect on mortality from seasonal influenza ...
What should we hope?
A pandemic every year to limit the damage of the season?
- In the long run-up the real pandemic wave (described in all texts of epidemiology as a feature of all pandemics), there was already a significant mortality and the Case Fatality Rate can now be estimated at a minimum level of 0.1% (mean 0 , 6% range from 0.1 to 5.1 depending on the country) (bibliography and links)
There was also a significant increase in hospitalizations from A H1N1 in Europe, with the expected overhead for the resuscitations.
a mortality of 0.1% for a wave pandemic that affects 15% of the Italian population is equivalent to more than 10,000 deaths. a mortality of 0.02% (link to: ECDC current estimate obtained by accumulating data di sorveglianza di tutta Europa e cioè dando credito anche a quelli italiani!) equivale a 2000 morti.
Che cosa si aspettano i cultori della
pandemia che non c’è e quelli della
pandemia light
che questi numeri verranno fuori dai comunicati che compaiono sui giornali?
Ci vorranno anni per calcolare l’eccesso di mortalità imputabile a quello che sta succedendo in questi giorni e ancora deve succedere.
Dopo la pandemia
light
che cosa si inventeranno?
Aspettiamo fiduciosi l'avvento della pandemia zero !
47th week: preview ...
Dumb! The pandemic is zero 47 weeks, what we are experiencing: the pandemic is probably gone by the Italian media?
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